FEDERAL RESERVE STUDIES
December 21, 2006The Yield Curve's Predictive Power by
Joseph G. Haubrich and Brent Meyer
10-Year 3-Month Yield Spread versus Predicted GDP Growth
Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Probability of Recession Based on the Yield Spread*
*Estimated using probit model.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
For more detail on
these and other issues related to using the yield curve to predict
recessions, see the Commentary:
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